So, with the Pac-12 offering full linear programming (no streaming) and $25 million per year ...
1) What does the B1G have to offer Oregon and Washington to get them to jump? Would $35 million be enough? Would $10 million more each year make it impossible for those two to say no?
2) What does the Big 12 have to offer Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah? Would $31 million be enough?
Now make it 50% streaming and $20 million.
Do $30 million and $25 million move the needle?
What's the delta that works? What's the magic number?
the Big Ten and Big 12 both offer stability and exposure, neither of which the Pac-12 currently can guarantee after Aug. 1, 2024. the financials is naturally a big component, but it's certainly not the only one.
so what it really is, is a magic combination of money and visibility, with a sprinkling of optics. because of that, it makes getting a deal that meets those important benchmarks plural much more difficult – and some would argue straight-up unlikely.
so to be clear: UCLA & USC took a hefty amount of the Pac's value with them when they left. the four-corner schools or thereabouts would jump to the Big 12 because they know the Big Ten will at some point before the end of this decade come back for the next two most valuable schools left in the Pac, WA & OR, and they don't want to be left in the dust again. the Pac without the LA schools is already borderline Power-5. without the next two, the Pac becomes the equivalent of a second Mountain West conference as it relates to the remaining schools' combined value.
once the Big Ten hires their new Commissioner, they just need to find an extra media partner (Amazon is rumored to be in talks already) to give the conference enough money to where WA & OR's additions won't shrink the payouts that each Big Ten team is projected to get. it'll help that WA & OR will each take as small a discount as needed to get in. the maintained exposure and money payouts similar to what WA & OR are each getting now ($33M per year) will get them through to the next media contract in 2030 when they'll be fully vested members and be able to get the regular share. (UCLA & USC were valuable enough to where they'll already be fully vested when they join next year, btw.)
the four-corner schools would supposedly get full value upon going to the Big 12 – $31M per year for each, again similar to the $33M. and they'd stay on ESPN & Fox. the schools already do varying levels of recruiting in Texas (Colorado does the most, of course), so it'd open up the recruiting for the others there. and if the Big 12 gets either San Diego State or Fresno State, that would be the one tie back to California to keep the California recruiting pipelines going. it sounds like Utah's the least likely to jump out of the four, as they're the most devoted to the Pac, and the Big 12 values the Utes the least since they already have a Utah-based school in BYU. that's when the Big 12 would add a California school instead. sounds like the Big 12 may only be able to take four football-included schools. Gonzaga to the Big 12 is the most likely move that's independent of Pac moves – it helps that they don't have football.
still, all these moves could happen pretty much together. once one school decides to leave, expect others to follow suit. it's still remotely possible no one from the Pac leaves in this media cycle, but... it is objectively difficult to see how they get enough money and get/stay on the right linear networks.
i have no idea what happens to the other four if the aforementioned six leave, because i don't know if the Pac will literally still exist after those theoretical departures, or if it dissolves. i have heard it would dissolve if it fell below 7 members at any one point. WSU & ORST would go to the Mountain West. Stanford would likely go independent. i have no idea what would happen to Cal if the Big Ten doesn't also let it in.
and one more thing, probably the only thing anyone needs to read in order to get a good handle on this situation. (i wouldn't blame you for skipping the above.)
when one of the Pac's mainline reporters is openly saying that the odds of the conference surviving – not even shuffling in/out teams, but rather continuing to exist – are, in football terms, a mere 3.5-point favorite... and this is a guy whose job would be very much up in the air should the conference dissolve as it relies upon the conference's existence, such that he has a vested interest in helping it remain alive through his reporting... well, imo, it says quite a lot about how bad things might just be behind the scenes.
Washington and Oregon may be getting $33 million now but reports indicate the next deal will be in the $25 million range, give or take. That does change the equation a bit -- it's hard, I would think, to turn down an extra $5 or $10 million a year.
Washington and Oregon may be getting $33 million now but reports indicate the next deal will be in the $25 million range, give or take. That does change the equation a bit -- it's hard, I would think, to turn down an extra $5 or $10 million a year.
and i think they'd still agree to that, if that's what the number had to be.
honestly, i've heard the Pac's had trouble getting a deal with a dollars figure close to $25M. it only gets that ""high"" if it's majority streaming... which ADs are telling their Presidents to avoid no matter what.
There's a lot at stake this summer. Not just the survival of the Pac, but the shape of college sports for the indefinite future.
Hiring a TV guy with a pro sports background is certainly a hint to the direction the B1G will take. And it's not good news if you're a fan of the way things used to be.
Hiring a TV guy with a pro sports background is certainly a hint to the direction the B1G will take. And it's not good news if you're a fan of the way things used to be.
everyone still misses the Old Big East. a lot even happened in between that whole saga and the SEC starting the latest round of realignment by taking in OU & UT. and now here we are. things have been changing for a while now, but it’s never been potentially this stark.
There's a lot at stake this summer. Not just the survival of the Pac, but the shape of college sports for the indefinite future.
And truly, the shape is currently and will continue to be dictated by the major tv networks – namely ESPN/ABC and Fox – as they have all this control over ncaa football [which of course has always had all this control over the ncaa] with regards to how, and where, they value schools especially within these bigger conferences.
Because tv ratings in football are & have been the clear-cut worst in the Pac across the board out of all the P5 conferences, the networks with the power have deemed individual Pac schools more valuable being separated into other conferences than together in one. Thus, the major networks have a vested interest in seeing the Pac disband from the way it is now and see these various schools migrate out of the Pac, which is a big reason why [though not even the only reason why] ESPN/ABC isn't coughing up anywhere close to the big bucks in media rights negotiations, and Fox all but abandoned negotiations after their initial lowball offer during that exclusive negotiating rights window last summer.
Interesting ... and there was a story in The Athletic saying that expansion isn't high on the B1G list right now.
It may not literally be their top priority, but the fact that those high-ranking officials in the Big Ten who have recently done interviews haven't actually said outright, "we're not pursuing further expansion anytime soon" – and they've had their opportunities to do so, not only in that Athletic story you're referring to but particularly in the new Commissioner's intro press conference from just a couple days ago – signals to me, as well as several others, that the conference is legitimately keeping its options open.
For example, this Emmy-winning tv producer & media consultant implies that the Big Ten doesn't want to be [held] responsible for effectively destroying the Pac as we know it, so they're waiting for a second entity [aka the Big 12] to hop in & get involved next.
The aforementioned three schools that are currently packing their bags for the Big 12 simply refuse to sign any Pac media deal that's majority streaming. The conundrum is, a majority-streaming deal is the only one that gets even close to an acceptable dollar figure that's competitive with the likes of the Big 12's & ACC's – and it's the only type of deal that's been seriously talked about for months now.
The only way any of those three don't jump is if they don't get the necessary internal support from their board officials and boosters to make the move. It'd be an important roadblock, but it's really the only one left at this point – and, just from the small bits & pieces I've seen & heard, it doesn't seem like it's actually gonna be one.
If true, and if it's the Pac-8 (or 6) again, I could see a long-term shift from Cal and Stanford into a West Coast Ivy League. The fact that Cal chancellor Carol Christ managed to get the Memorial Stadium debt off the athletic department books makes it even easier for Cal to make that transition. And since, as far as anyone can tell, no one really cares about Stanford athletics (look at attendance), it wouldn't matter much there either.
Cal & Stanford are sort of naturally in the same boat these days as academic powerhouses with bad & poorly-followed football programs. The tv networks just don’t value them, especially with both being in the Bay Area; but other conferences' presidents would love to be associated with either/both of them by way of being in the same conference as either/both of them. I truly have no idea what’ll win out when the time comes and Pac schools start becoming 'free agents' of sorts.
But I also don’t think the two schools necessarily have the same goals re: athletics. Cal openly wants in the Big Ten, especially considering they have their new football stadium they need to be able to pay off. On the other hand, people think Stanford could go independent and just play local opponents – or end up cutting football altogether. Stanford is great at Olympic sports, so they might actually care about their football program in spite of all other sports, which seems counterintuitive for virtually any other FBS school. People also agree that Stanford doesn't want to follow the NIL/paying players trend, but it might potentially see the writing on the wall between the many NCAA lawsuits related to NIL, scholarships, and the potential employment status of student-athletes such that it gets with the times anyway.
It’s gonna really be interesting to see what happens to those two if the Pac departures do in fact start up again. They're truly wild cards in all this.
Why isn't there a West Coast Ivy League? That model makes a lot of sense in the new order of things.
And note, though, that Cal's athletic department is not responsible for paying off the retrofit of Memorial Stadium. In fact, I believe it has been shoved off to the Regents of the whole system, so it's not a "Cal" issue. Even if it is, Cal can blame UCLA for whatever financing problems might come up, and easily could force UCLA to pay a lot of the cost.
Cal is more serious about football and men's basketball, though, but if neither team wins, it will be hard to maintain the support.
Why isn't there a West Coast Ivy League? That model makes a lot of sense in the new order of things.
I can already hear the tv execs gagging at the phrase, “West-coast Ivy League.” Imo that concept will make a lot more sense for all other sports once football finally breaks away and does its own separate thing conference-wise, money-wise, operations-wise, etc. But we’re probably still some decades away from that happening.
And note, though, that Cal's athletic department is not responsible for paying off the retrofit of Memorial Stadium. In fact, I believe it has been shoved off to the Regents of the whole system, so it's not a "Cal" issue. Even if it is, Cal can blame UCLA for whatever financing problems might come up, and easily could force UCLA to pay a lot of the cost.
Cal is more serious about football and men's basketball, though, but if neither team wins, it will be hard to maintain the support.
That may be, but Cal Athletics still has a substantial financial deficit on its hands, especially dating back to the pandemic season. There’s only so much of the blame it can pass around to deflect from itself before it has to deal with its own issues. The optics as it relates to its athletics are already so bad.
Imo it would be in Cal’s best interest if Stanford didn’t at all want into the Big Ten. Fox’s tv execs could maybe live with one low-eyeballs institution in the Bay Area if all the conference Presidents were united in such an effort to bring ‘em in and the money [aka the best discount] were there, but two may prove to be a bridge too far. Hard to say.
Wild how Colorado somewhat started the decade+ long craziness and now (likely) going back to where they came from lol. I believe they beat Nebraska by a day bolting the Big 12 at the time.