things can change overnight. thanks to Oregon, it looks like the Pac will stay together, after all that. some can & should thank them, but that group certainly won’t include me. i genuinely don’t know at this point if i can bring myself to subscribe to Apple TV+ just to consume Pac content.
yeah, we got some drama early this morning, but it looks like those were last-ditch efforts [by Oregon] to get the most money from the cash cow that is the Big Ten. now that it appears to have worked, i suppose i don’t blame them.
Cal, Wazzu, and Oregon State are about to be penny-pinching… a lot. i foresee several varsity Olympic sports programs cut from Cal & Wazzu particularly.
...been wondering if the Mountain West might eventually "benefit" from this.
there will surely be a merger between the MW and the Pac. Kliavkoff has already reached out to MW’s Commish Nevarez about it. they’ll probably call it the Pac something, but it won’t mean much irl. i at least don’t think the ACC would be interested in 3-4 rando west-coast schools at that point.
with 8 of the 12 schools officially having found new homes in time for the '24-'25 academic year, the Pac's elimination number has effectively reached zero.
Do all these moves and potential lack of conference for Stanford affect their recruiting and status as a power? Does Tara think about retiring more now?
Scott Rueck at Oregon State? Does he look at moving?
formerly pickdiamondmillerchallenge lol formerly dmillerturnprochallenge ha formerly bostonturnprochallenge lol
Stanford may just drop sports. Oregon State and Washington State are MWC-bound.
Cal? Doomed ...
But how do the Apple Cup and Civil War survive at the end of the season? And what about intrastate rivalries in other sports?
Oklahoma State discontinuing their Bedlam rivalry series with Oklahoma may point to how the Apple Cup & Civil War shape up, depending on how much contempt ORST & WSU hold for Oregon & Washington respectively. both Oregon & Washington said in their press releases that they’d like for those rivalries to continue in all sports, but even if all parties were for it, the way scheduling is done in football could put in on hold for some years.
i’ll also say… we don’t know for sure yet that neither ORST nor WSU are joining the Big 12. i hear that has yet to be determined after ESPN essentially lost all their Pacific-timeslot brands, and now would want whoever’s left.
there is more momentum for Stanford to go independent than join any other conference, which they can support as their athletics are so hugely donor-powered anyway. i’m not sure they ever wanted to go to the Big Ten – they’d have to embrace NIL, and share their research consortium amongst Big Ten schools, both of which could easily have been dealbreakers. even Stanford, however, has reached out to the Big 12 in recent days…
…whereas i’m not even sure Cal has. no one seems to know what their plans are. i wish they’d get over their pride and just reach out to the Big 12, but i don’t know what you’d have to say about that, clayk.
Do all these moves and potential lack of conference for Stanford affect their recruiting and status as a power? Does Tara think about retiring more now?
Scott Rueck at Oregon State? Does he look at moving?
i’d say every coach will stay where they are (assuming they had a choice, so everyone but Charmin Smith at Cal tbh) so long as they feel supported within their athletic department.
that feeling however may only last a season or two, especially depending on their respective abilities to recruit. we may know more if a lot of student-athletes from those schools transfer out at the end of the upcoming school year. it was weird seeing people transfer out of Stanford as it is.
it’s interesting because WSU & ORST heavily recruit internationally. Stanford recruits nationally, and to a marginally lesser degree so does Cal. it may not be too tough for them, at least in the beginning. (although Charmin Smith may be out of a job if she doesn’t do anything this upcoming season.) once again: poor Cal.
Cal has never had a plan, excepting extending incompetent or marginal high-level employees. Carol Christ, the chancellor, managed to dump the huge stadium retrofit debt back to the Regents, so there's no need to have bigtime athletics from a financial standpoint.
But if Cal is not in a Power conference, Charmin's job is probably safe, because Cal can recruit against Boise State, say, in ways it never could against UCLA or Oregon.
apparently Apple is still interested in a full media rights package and talking to Kliavkoff + the remaining Pac members, even as they’re one departing member away from official dissolution. the Pac’s still devising a plan to expand aka replace those who departed in numbers with a likely combo of Mountain West and AAC members. we’ll start to feel the effects of these P5 moves on the G5 level very soon.
funny how Stanford & Cal were allegedly Pac members who were against expansion in recent history, but i suppose when things get desperate…
I would not be shocked if Stanford took their football team to the FCS.
Recruiting football schools to the P12 will be difficult. The MWC teams have $30M+ exit fees each. All the football independents besides Notre Dame are on the east coast. They might be able to cobble together a non-football group but it's hard to see how they can continue as an FBS conference.
I would not be shocked if Stanford took their football team to the FCS.
Recruiting football schools to the P12 will be difficult. The MWC teams have $30M+ exit fees each. All the football independents besides Notre Dame are on the east coast. They might be able to cobble together a non-football group but it's hard to see how they can continue as an FBS conference.
there’s talk that a large faction of the Mountain West members want to force the conference to hold a vote to dissolve it, in which those who vote ‘yes’ would have a Pac invite waiting for them, thereby avoiding any exit fee shenanigans and making sure the current Pac-4 can pick & choose whom they want, as opposed to a merger in which they’d have to align with all of them. i’m skeptical though that that’s how that would all work/play out. the Mountain West is headquartered in Colorado, so it may depend on state law – that’s how i understand it would theoretically work for the North Carolina-based ACC, anyway.
Conceivably the MWC could dissolve and its members move into the Pac, thus retaining the Pac's CFB affiliation. Then the new Pac could negotiate a new media deal that probably wouldn't be $20 million a year but would be higher than the MWC $4 million payout. Apple or Amazon could then step in, as the CFB affiliation is worth viewership.
Of all the options for Cal, short of a B1G invitation, this might be the best -- though it's a bad one. Don't see the Big 12 calling, but maybe ...
Stanford is the wild card here, because they could decide to take the moral high ground and just de-emphasize most sports. They could maintain women's basketball in some manner -- you think the WCC wouldn't let them in for women's b-ball only? -- and punt on football, which didn't draw even when the won. If Stanford steps away from the table, Cal is right there with Oregon State and Washington State.
Now had Cal had any leadership (the AD is completely incompetent and so his contract was extended) and maintained some level of success in football or even men's basketball, it might be a different story. But who wants bad programs that don't draw in an area that hasn't shown any interest in college sports for 15 years?
ESPN wants Pacific timeslots from the Big 12. if Cal wants to be a part of that, i’m guessing Big 12 presidents wouldn’t say ‘no’ simply due to the academic prestige that would come along with having Cal in the conference. ditto Stanford, even as it seems they’re in a totally different situation than Cal.
however, schools like Stanford & Cal may not jibe with Brett Yormark, who wants schools that are a part of his vision – good basketball brands with non-messy athletic departments. (some theorize that the only reason he even spoke to Arizona State is cuz Arizona required it.) and especially with San Diego State being in SoCal, the Aztecs fit that description to a “t” – but unless the MWC dissolves, the Aztecs appear to be unable to join until the 2025-26 season thanks to the timing of everything working against them. Gonzaga would be an easy in if they had a football program, as would UConn if it were on the west coast. so then, Yormark will continue to have some choices to make and some talking to do with lots of different folks.
as it is, the Pac-4 can’t lose one more member, or else it’ll lose its CFP spot/money, and each of the Pac-4 allegedly remains in contact of some capacity with Yormark. there will have to be more attempts at threading the needle if Kliavkoff wants the Pac to expand first before it loses another school. that means that they essentially have to start with the AAC, as those exit fees long story short are more manageable for a departing school than the MWC’s at the moment. they can really only get MWC schools [without merging entirely] if the conference votes to dissolve, freeing everyone up.
But if the Big 12 adds the four Pac schools, where does the $124 million come from to pay them? I don't see them adding that much value to the TV package, and for them to come in at a lower number puts them at a significant disadvantage until they get full membership.
But if the Big 12 adds the four Pac schools, where does the $124 million come from to pay them? I don't see them adding that much value to the TV package, and for them to come in at a lower number puts them at a significant disadvantage until they get full membership.
Nothing simple here ...
oh they were never gonna add all four Pac-4 schools. out of the question. just up to two of them at a reduced share, but as few as none of them, as Yormark is currently considering three other schools as well. Big 12 allegedly wants Stanford the most, but once Stanford presumably declines, they’ll go after San Diego State since they have the best mbb brand left on the west coast. Oregon State is allegedly a bit preferred over Washington State, and it sounds like they may be competing for the same semi-spot unless the pursuits of both Stanford and SDSU hit a real snag. maybe they both get those last spots but i find it unlikely. Cal meanwhile is at the bottom of the list, surely in part thanks to their athletic department’s shortcomings as you’ve mentioned. and then there’s the basketball-additions-only schools Gonzaga and UConn – not sure at this time if they’d be added as schools #17 & 18 or potentially #19 & 20.
and then there’s the Florida State ACC withdrawal situation which many think will happen on or even right before next Tuesday. i don’t foresee anything else official happening with realignment anywhere until everyone knows if that process is initiated now or this time next year. (don’t be surprised though if it’s now…)
and if the ACC brings ESPN their Pacific-coast late-night timeslots, then the Big 12 no longer needs to add more schools for that very reason. Florida State & Clemson are against adding Stanford & Cal, so this all could be a signal that Florida State & Clemson are about to leave the conference.
I think the Pac-4's only viable option is the MWC. I don't see the ACC opening the GOR, and even if they did, the travel issues for an All-Coast Conference are pretty daunting. The Big 12 and B1G have no reason to add any more teams.
And let's think about who is watching games that end at 1:30 a.m. East Coast time: Gamblers. And they can put money down on an MWC game as easily as an ACC game.