I think the Pac-4's only viable option is the MWC. I don't see the ACC opening the GOR, and even if they did, the travel issues for an All-Coast Conference are pretty daunting. The Big 12 and B1G have no reason to add any more teams.
And let's think about who is watching games that end at 1:30 a.m. East Coast time: Gamblers. And they can put money down on an MWC game as easily as an ACC game.
i agree. Stanford & Cal to the ACC would just be so both schools could keep up a comparable media rights paycheck to what they get now and so ESPN gets its late-night windows. (and now it sounds like SMU is getting involved in ACC expansion efforts – or involving itself – for whatever that’s worth.) otherwise, the ACC itself seems like it has no idea how to best navigate its Florida State [& whomever else] problem, whether the Seminoles withdraw next week or next year, and the conference is just throwing spitballs & seeing what sticks given the realignment landscape immediately in front of it.
i’ve also heard it said that ESPN & Fox are afraid of litigation from Pac-4 schools without a P5 home, and so they’re motivated to be part of the solution proactively. plus, Stanford + Cal moving next means the remainder of the Pac rights are left with ORST & WSU. the Big 12 could then initiate a merger with the would-be Pac-2, because in the process it would get to acquire the Pac-12 Networks and create its own network off of the pre-existing infrastructure.
I also heard the ACC would be for football and men's basketball only (unclear on women's basketball), and the rest of the teams would play in different leagues. That makes sense, and UW and Oregon should do the same. Why does volleyball need to play Rutgers instead of San Diego State?
I also heard the ACC would be for football and men's basketball only (unclear on women's basketball), and the rest of the teams would play in different leagues. That makes sense, and UW and Oregon should do the same.
and so should USC & UCLA. won’t happen for the new Big Ten inductees unfortunately which is extremely short-sighted, but at least Cal & Stanford would be exploring something halfway-sensible.
and to me, women’s basketball/[insert women’s sport here] should really do what its male counterparts of the same sport do for the sake of optics. besides, Stanford wbb would wipe the floor with a conference slate of likely WCC opponents – save for maybe Gonzaga, which may leave for the Big 12 eventually anyway.
there’s talk that a large faction of the Mountain West members want to force the conference to hold a vote to dissolve it, in which those who vote ‘yes’ would have a Pac invite waiting for them, thereby avoiding any exit fee shenanigans and making sure the current Pac-4 can pick & choose whom they want, as opposed to a merger in which they’d have to align with all of them.
officially it would take a 9-vote supermajority to vote to dissolve the conference, ergo it would theoretically take nine MWC schools getting assured of – and wanting, a potentially crucial caveat here – a Pac invite thereafter. (imo the MWC doesn’t have nine Power conference-worthy schools ready to make the jump, but, desperate times & all.)
that course of action is basically the only way the Pac could even feasibly keep its CFP money & P5 status through 2026. i’m sure an AAC school or two would come into the fold as well for the sake of numbers – assuming they don’t make the jump to the ACC instead. speaking of the ACC, all of this would have to happen before Stanford & Cal go to the ACC...
and by the way, if the ACC takes Stanford & Cal in all sports for the rumored "strength in numbers" reasoning (especially if Florida State and possibly another school leave next week which would potentially kick off a lot off ACC departures in the next 1-2 years), why wouldn't it go ahead and add ORST & WSU for the same reasons? like clayk , i too hope the ACC would only take Stanford & Cal in revenue-potential sports. allegedly Stanford & Cal at least already have the votes within the ACC – the parties involved are just working out the financials at this point.
The ACC option is pure desperation, and though Virginia Tech is taking the heat as the swing vote, a lot of time in these situations, other voters are willing to remain silent even though they agree with the holdout (VT in this case).
In other words, if I'm North Carolina State and I don't want Cal and Stanford, I don't have to take a stand as long as Virginia Tech does. Behind the scenes, I'm supporting VT, but publicly I'm silent. In short, reports that only four schools are against Cal and Stanford may not actually be true even though only four schools have said so.
It really seems to me the Pac-4 should join the MWC and wait for the next round of realignment, hoping for a better outcome. A bad option, no doubt, but there are no better ones.
yep, for better or worse, apparently Stanford & Cal didn’t have the votes yet. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
all involved parties may as well hold all negotiations til Tuesday to see which ACC schools withdraw, if any. we’re close now. that’s gonna play a role in how everything else plays out.
one thing’s for sure: the end of the ACC will be messy, as opposed to the end of the Pac which has honestly been pretty clean in comparison when ya think about it.
if the ACC doesn’t take Stanford & Cal, the Pac-4 will try to initiate a plan to continue to exist without having to simply merge with the MWC [or AAC]. the Big 12 then would allegedly take SDSU & UConn.
if the ACC however does find a way to take Stanford & Cal, the Big 12 would allegedly take ORST & WSU [& the rights to the Pac-12 Networks] so Fox and/or ESPN can avoid lawsuits from ORST & WSU as the remaining conference-less Power-5 schools.
as much as i’d want to see SDSU, UConn, or any other G5 school find their way into a Power conference, i’d first prefer that current P5 schools don’t get relegated to the G5 level. that’s just too devastating for entire athletic departments, and would surely happen even to a rebuilt Pac conference in a few years time. idk what that would mean for most of these student-athletes at a Cal/Stanford to potentially travel across country all the time, but at least their program and thus their scholarship/financial aid agreement would still exist.
just need another ACC school or two to flip… or for one or two of the ‘no’ votes to withdraw from the conference asap. i don’t want to see the ACC completely collapse like the Pac did.
everyone’s making it seem like the ACC option for Cal & Stanford has stalled out, but if they were really only one vote away from getting in, it would be magically solved with FSU withdrawing since they’re one of the schools against it. so either no one in the conference’s leadership group believes FSU’s about to withdraw – and perhaps there’s internal confirmation or otherwise that they aren’t – or Cal & Stanford aren’t actually just one vote away and are in reality multiple ones away – it’s just that some presidents of middle-tier/lesser schools don’t want to vote “no” if they don’t have to for political reasons here. why go against the will of the majority if you don’t have to?
people have a little more confidence that the Pac-4 are going to try to rebuild the conference before genuinely considering a merge if it all falls through. that outcome seems pretty unlikely, but they ought to give it all they’ve got if they want to avoid [or at least postpone] dropping down to the MWC or AAC’s level at all costs.
The Cal message board has some heavy hitters who say that if Cal doesn't get in the B1G, all the donors will disappear and the NIL funds will dry up. Those folks won't accept a Pac with San Diego State and Fresno State and such.
If that's correct -- and it seems likely that it is -- then not only would Cal lose $18 million or so off the top of the athletic budget, they would have a minimal NIL fund and minimal donations.
Of course, for the Pac to get San Diego State, somebody has to come up with at least $17 million, because that's the buyout -- and there's no guarantee a reconstituted Pac would get a better media deal than the MWC.
The Cal message board has some heavy hitters who say that if Cal doesn't get in the B1G, all the donors will disappear and the NIL funds will dry up. Those folks won't accept a Pac with San Diego State and Fresno State and such.
this is where schools like Cal get their “elitist” label from. it’s sad, cuz it has nothing to do with the actual student-athletes whom they support.
that B1G invite ain’t coming. that much is clear to me. if Cal wants to rebuild the Pac but won’t even accept a SDSU-level university let alone the best of the rest the Mountain West has to offer – unless it’s the symbolic joint venture with the California State schools system they want to avoid at any/all costs, which is its own topic of discourse – then idk what to tell them. it’s AAC or independence, neither of which is truly desirable or ideal – though i hear the Pac-4 are now in talks with the AAC.
but at least the ACC is still a Power conference… for now anyway. i hope that if FSU withdraws by Tuesday, it increases Cal & Stanford’s chances at getting into the ACC. everything though remains to be seen.
can’t imagine being a donor to a terribly mismanaged athletic department. yeah it’s ultimately to support the student-athletes, but where has that support gotten the donors over the years? if Cal stays in a remade Pac, they’ll theoretically be much more competitive.
There are two scenarios Mountain West members have discussed most often in the past few weeks, a source told FOS: adding Oregon State, Washington State, and the Pac-12 branding — or dissolving the conference and joining the existing Pac-12 entity.
The Mountain West is interested in the two schools, that source confirmed. If they join, they might be allowed to bring the intellectual property of the Pac-12 with them. In this scenario, Nevarez would become the first female Power 5 commissioner.
at this point, Stanford’s dictating the rest of the movement. there’s more momentum for the Pac-4 & AAC undergoing a merger thanks to the more academically-inclined schools in it which is a dealbreaker for Stanford, national appeal, and a better TV deal with ESPN. lot of details still to hammer out though, and pending potentially one more ACC domino that could still fall…
Last Edit: Aug 13, 2023 18:09:21 GMT -5 by Deleted
the networks want this shit with the Pac-4 resolved soon, so the ACC’s supposed to hold an official vote on Stanford & Cal today/tomorrow/Monday. sounds like it could go either direction the more concessions Stanford & Cal offer…