Indiana’s a tough out in Big Ten tourney and beyond. But good enough to beat South Carolina?
Mar 4, 2023 2:07:44 GMT -5
Post by WBBDaily on Mar 4, 2023 2:07:44 GMT -5
With conference tournaments tipping off across the country, we’re soon going to have a clearer idea of what the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves … because with parity across conferences seemingly at an all-time high (we say this every year, no?) there are sure to be some surprises.
In our first college version of Getting Technical, The Athletic’s women’s basketball writers Sabreena Merchant and Chantel Jennings discuss what’s ahead this March.
Sabreena: It’s finally March, Chantel, and I think the question everyone has on their minds with the start of the tournaments is: Can anyone challenge South Carolina?
Chantel: While I still have the Gamecocks as my national championship pick, I’m slightly less confident than I was a few months ago. The last few weeks have given teams a bit of a roadmap in how to play South Carolina close. Ole Miss pushed the Gamecocks into overtime, UConn (with six bodies) drove them to the brink. Yes, those teams couldn’t finish the job. But could another in March?
The physical matchup against South Carolina is always going to be the problem and specifically with how well Kamilla Cardoso has played lately, and pairing her with Aliyah Boston, there just aren’t many teams nationally that can handle that length and size. However, for a team that could match up physically (I’m looking at you, Stanford — Cam Brink and Lauren Betts), there’s now more of a roadmap than there was even when these two teams faced off in November. But my bigger issue with South Carolina is that I’m still never going to be 100 percent confident (or even 70 percent confident) in its outside scoring options, who might end up being the weak links this March.
What do you think?
Sabreena: I am more confident in South Carolina winning it all than I was a month ago because each of the contenders to take down the Gamecocks keeps slipping up. We saw Stanford have some severe offensive issues in conference play, and turnovers are death against South Carolina. UConn, despite playing the Gamecocks tight, has had its own scoring woes without Azzi Fudd. Even Indiana suffered a second loss while South Carolina kept chugging along.
I thought this version of the Gamecocks would be worse than the 2021-22 team because of the graduation of Destanni Henderson, but Zia Cooke has improved as an offensive option, Cardoso is on an absolute tear, and the duo of Raven Johnson and Kierra Fletcher has stabilized the point guard position enough to keep the offense humming. I do think it would be interesting to see South Carolina have to face off against an offensive powerhouse that cleans the defensive glass well.
Chantel: Yeah, you’re not going to beat South Carolina by going bucket-for-bucket in the paint. But if the Gamecocks run into a team that gets hot from long range and can slow Boston’s interior production, that could be a winning combination. While Geno Auriemma said that nothing is fixable at this point in the year, I think a lot gets fixed for the Huskies when Fudd is inserted into the lineup, so a UConn-SC rematch would look pretty different.
For Stanford, Hannah Jump and Brooke Demetre would have to get going, and Brink would need to stay out of foul trouble. Could Monica Czinano and Hannah Stuelke be enough of a force inside to slow down the Gamecocks if Caitlin Clark gets going and puts up triple-double numbers? I’m not sure. I do feel like this March is going to be a lot of fun, though. Usually, you can pencil in two to three No. 1 and No. 2 seeds for the Final Four, but I wonder if this might be the year that’s different.
But with conference tournaments kicking off, let’s take a gander at the landscape right now. Which conference tournament has you most intrigued?
Are Taylor Soule and Virginia Tech peaking at the right time? (Ryan Hunt / Getty Images)
Sabreena: From a historical perspective, I have an eye on the SEC. But I am most interested in what’s happening in the ACC. Notre Dame won the regular-season title (though the obvious caveat of Olivia Miles’ health is in play), but I think Virginia Tech is playing the best of any team in the conference, and North Carolina also has its full starting lineup back with some ground to make up in the minds of the selection committee. I haven’t even yet mentioned Duke, which was leading the ACC up until the final game of the regular season and can put the clamps on just about any team in the country, or Florida State, which beat the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils during conference play. This is the most wide-open field among the major conferences, and there is a sleeper Final Four contender somewhere in the ACC, even if I’m not yet sure which team that is.
Where is your focus this weekend?
Chantel: The Pac-12 feels pretty wide open, too, given that I feel as though we’ve seen the highs and lows out of the top half of the league over the last few weeks — Utah is coming in with a ton of momentum and Stanford is Stanford (though we’ve seen some struggles, as you mentioned), but then you have a bunch of teams like USC, UCLA, Colorado and Arizona that seem like they could play spoiler if everything goes right for them. I’m a big fan (and proponent) of all things #Pac12AfterDark so I would prefer chaos out of that conference.
I’ll be at the Target Center for the Big Ten tournament, which I think will be a lot of fun, too. I’m excited to witness The Caitlin Clark Experience ™ in person, and I think that buzzer-beating loss to Iowa will have Indiana’s focus on another level. Maryland is intriguing because it feels like all the Terrapins’ weapons are starting to emerge at the right time, and I still think Michigan could play Big Ten spoiler if Laila Phelia returns.
Sabreena: Hang on, I’ve got some Maryland/Indiana thoughts.
Chantel: I’m all ears.
Sabreena: I don’t want it to seem like I’m diminishing the Hoosiers’ chances in March just because they lost one game on a buzzer-beater by the potential national player of the year. Even though I’d still favor South Carolina in a potential matchup, that doesn’t mean I am not very bullish on what Indiana can accomplish at the Big Ten tournament and beyond. This is just about the most balanced team in the country offensively with Mackenzie Holmes and Grace Berger generating offense from the post and the perimeter, and oodles of shooters surrounding them in Sydney Parrish, Yarden Garzon and Sara Scalia. Plus, they actually defend well enough to throw other teams off balance, with Chloe Moore-McNeil as the head of the snake on that end of the floor. Her foul trouble against Iowa was a huge reason the Hoosiers had such difficulty reining in Clark. Loss on Sunday or not, Indiana basically has played consistently well since Berger came back in early January, and I would be praying to end up in a different region than this team on Selection Sunday.
go-deeper
GO DEEPER
A hyped crowd, a game-winning shot and Caitlin Clark heroics make for historic day at Iowa
Chantel: Ditto. It feels strange to say that the Hoosiers have great depth considering they only play six players, but after last season, six players feels like serious depth for this team. Moore-McNeil is the only IU player playing 33-plus minutes? Praise be.
Sabreena: What’s wild about the Big Ten is for as much as we’ve extolled Indiana and Iowa, Maryland might be the best team right now. What the Terrapins did to Iowa was as impressive a performance as I’ve seen all year, and the perfect example of a team peaking at the right time. Those confusing losses to DePaul and Nebraska are far in the rearview; the current iteration of Maryland is a defensive juggernaut that walls off the paint, gets out in transition and rolls off double-digit scoring runs in the blink of an eye. Diamond Miller is good enough to be the best player on a title-winning team, and the rest of the crew has come along with her. Abby Meyers and Brinae Alexander are shooting the lights out, and I don’t have words to explain how frustrating it must be to have Shyanne Sellers guarding you.
Chantel: Sellers’ growth from her freshman to sophomore seasons, especially in terms of her defensive play, has been one of the most fun things to watch this season. And offensively, she has become such a dynamic playmaker for Brenda Frese’s team. She is dangerous, and she makes this team way more dangerous.
There aren’t that many mid-majors making noise this season, but are there any teams outside of the Top 25 that you might tune in to watch during conference tournament season?
Sabreena: Florida Gulf Coast may not have Kierstan Bell or another WNBA first-round prospect this year, but the Eagles still have Karl Smesko, and that means they’ll play the most modern offense possible. Plus, the Atlantic Sun has two teams currently on double-digit winning streaks, which would make a Gulf Coast/Liberty final a real treat.
The Ivy League has also been interesting this season. Princeton appears to have settled in, playing like the preseason favorite over the last month, but Columbia, Harvard and Penn have all beaten up on each other this year, creating some drama around that automatic bid.
Any other potential Cinderellas we should have an eye on?
Chantel: Belmont. The Bruins return three starters off a team that got NCAA Tournament win experience last season by beating Oregon and nearly taking down Tennessee. They have two more games to play in the regular season, but they’re riding a 12-game winning streak. In my book, experience plus momentum is usually a pretty good equation for some March Magic when it comes to mid-majors.
But even though I like the Bruins, I’m not certain that there’s a mid-major team that can play ultimate spoiler or go on a huge run during the NCAA Tournament. I think the bulk of the madness this year will come from all the power conferences beating up on one another with the 6 or 7 seeds being more dangerous than they’ve been in awhile. And part of that comes from the fact that there just seemed to be so many more injuries this season, which impacted records, and if those teams can get healthy by the tournament, then their records/seedings might not reflect what’s actually in the cupboard.
I can’t believe we’ve gotten this far without talking about the chaos that could be the Big East. Is this the first time in a loooooong time that UConn is going to require an at-large bid to get into the big dance? Given the most recent injury news out of Storrs (Dorka Juhász missing Monday’s game with an ankle sprain) and that Azzi Fudd is still participating in only warm-ups, I’m just not certain this team will have the depth to get through the Big East tournament unscathed. Though, it feels as though we should note that the last time the Huskies didn’t receive an AQ (2013), they went on to win the national title with no opponent getting closer than 18 points in the tourney. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Sabreena: As much as I want to predict chaos, I can’t see the Big East tournament ending any way but with UConn cutting down nets. This is a much better conference than in recent years, with five teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament in ESPN’s latest bracketology. But Juhász specifically sat Monday to be ready for the tournament, and as long as the current starting five plus Caroline Ducharme are good to go, I think this group has enough to get the job done in what is basically their backyard at Mohegan Sun.
Chantel: The Maddy Siegrist Hive is going to be sending you angry emails, Sabreena.
Sabreena: The most difficulty Siegrist has had all season was against Aaliyah Edwards, and I expect Edwards to once again be up to the challenge. But even if UConn wins the Big East, I have a hard time seeing the Huskies ending up as a No. 1 seed when it’s all said and done, which brings me to my last question. Which team has the most to prove during the conference tournaments?
Chantel: Good question. I’m curious to see what Tennessee can do. The fact that the SEC has two teams ranked in the top four, and that’s it for SEC ranked teams … feels a bit off to me. The Lady Vols have had some quality losses this season, and they’ve been in basically every game they’ve played this year for 30-ish minutes. I want to see if they can push that to 40. Kellie Harper has two weeks to get her players better and find the right buttons to push, but I think if Jordan Horston can fill her stat line — and not just from a scoring perspective — this could be a team that shows the SEC should’ve gotten more respect during the regular season from voters.
What about you?
Sabreena: Hilariously, we find ourselves in the same conference.
Chantel: Ah, yes, the SEC, it just means more.
Sabreena: I think this is a big week for LSU. The Tigers fell flat on their faces the first time they faced off against South Carolina — no shame, considering that’s what happens to most teams — but getting another date with the Gamecocks, and at least playing it close, could go a long way in preparing LSU for what’s to come later in the NCAA Tournament. And if the Tigers fail to even get that far, it’ll be easier for us amateur bracketologists to predict an early exit for them in the Big Dance.
Chantel: I, for one, am excited to see how all our predictions come to pass.
Sabreena: Hopefully, these age better than our midseason roundtable. But hey, Notre Dame won the ACC, so kudos to us.
Chantel: And Iowa is definitely not a Final Fo … oh, wait, never mind (mea culpa, mea culpa). Regardless of how right (or wrong) we are or come to be, it’s March, and that’s reason enough to celebrate.
In our first college version of Getting Technical, The Athletic’s women’s basketball writers Sabreena Merchant and Chantel Jennings discuss what’s ahead this March.
Sabreena: It’s finally March, Chantel, and I think the question everyone has on their minds with the start of the tournaments is: Can anyone challenge South Carolina?
Chantel: While I still have the Gamecocks as my national championship pick, I’m slightly less confident than I was a few months ago. The last few weeks have given teams a bit of a roadmap in how to play South Carolina close. Ole Miss pushed the Gamecocks into overtime, UConn (with six bodies) drove them to the brink. Yes, those teams couldn’t finish the job. But could another in March?
The physical matchup against South Carolina is always going to be the problem and specifically with how well Kamilla Cardoso has played lately, and pairing her with Aliyah Boston, there just aren’t many teams nationally that can handle that length and size. However, for a team that could match up physically (I’m looking at you, Stanford — Cam Brink and Lauren Betts), there’s now more of a roadmap than there was even when these two teams faced off in November. But my bigger issue with South Carolina is that I’m still never going to be 100 percent confident (or even 70 percent confident) in its outside scoring options, who might end up being the weak links this March.
What do you think?
Sabreena: I am more confident in South Carolina winning it all than I was a month ago because each of the contenders to take down the Gamecocks keeps slipping up. We saw Stanford have some severe offensive issues in conference play, and turnovers are death against South Carolina. UConn, despite playing the Gamecocks tight, has had its own scoring woes without Azzi Fudd. Even Indiana suffered a second loss while South Carolina kept chugging along.
I thought this version of the Gamecocks would be worse than the 2021-22 team because of the graduation of Destanni Henderson, but Zia Cooke has improved as an offensive option, Cardoso is on an absolute tear, and the duo of Raven Johnson and Kierra Fletcher has stabilized the point guard position enough to keep the offense humming. I do think it would be interesting to see South Carolina have to face off against an offensive powerhouse that cleans the defensive glass well.
Chantel: Yeah, you’re not going to beat South Carolina by going bucket-for-bucket in the paint. But if the Gamecocks run into a team that gets hot from long range and can slow Boston’s interior production, that could be a winning combination. While Geno Auriemma said that nothing is fixable at this point in the year, I think a lot gets fixed for the Huskies when Fudd is inserted into the lineup, so a UConn-SC rematch would look pretty different.
For Stanford, Hannah Jump and Brooke Demetre would have to get going, and Brink would need to stay out of foul trouble. Could Monica Czinano and Hannah Stuelke be enough of a force inside to slow down the Gamecocks if Caitlin Clark gets going and puts up triple-double numbers? I’m not sure. I do feel like this March is going to be a lot of fun, though. Usually, you can pencil in two to three No. 1 and No. 2 seeds for the Final Four, but I wonder if this might be the year that’s different.
But with conference tournaments kicking off, let’s take a gander at the landscape right now. Which conference tournament has you most intrigued?
Are Taylor Soule and Virginia Tech peaking at the right time? (Ryan Hunt / Getty Images)
Sabreena: From a historical perspective, I have an eye on the SEC. But I am most interested in what’s happening in the ACC. Notre Dame won the regular-season title (though the obvious caveat of Olivia Miles’ health is in play), but I think Virginia Tech is playing the best of any team in the conference, and North Carolina also has its full starting lineup back with some ground to make up in the minds of the selection committee. I haven’t even yet mentioned Duke, which was leading the ACC up until the final game of the regular season and can put the clamps on just about any team in the country, or Florida State, which beat the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils during conference play. This is the most wide-open field among the major conferences, and there is a sleeper Final Four contender somewhere in the ACC, even if I’m not yet sure which team that is.
Where is your focus this weekend?
Chantel: The Pac-12 feels pretty wide open, too, given that I feel as though we’ve seen the highs and lows out of the top half of the league over the last few weeks — Utah is coming in with a ton of momentum and Stanford is Stanford (though we’ve seen some struggles, as you mentioned), but then you have a bunch of teams like USC, UCLA, Colorado and Arizona that seem like they could play spoiler if everything goes right for them. I’m a big fan (and proponent) of all things #Pac12AfterDark so I would prefer chaos out of that conference.
I’ll be at the Target Center for the Big Ten tournament, which I think will be a lot of fun, too. I’m excited to witness The Caitlin Clark Experience ™ in person, and I think that buzzer-beating loss to Iowa will have Indiana’s focus on another level. Maryland is intriguing because it feels like all the Terrapins’ weapons are starting to emerge at the right time, and I still think Michigan could play Big Ten spoiler if Laila Phelia returns.
Sabreena: Hang on, I’ve got some Maryland/Indiana thoughts.
Chantel: I’m all ears.
Sabreena: I don’t want it to seem like I’m diminishing the Hoosiers’ chances in March just because they lost one game on a buzzer-beater by the potential national player of the year. Even though I’d still favor South Carolina in a potential matchup, that doesn’t mean I am not very bullish on what Indiana can accomplish at the Big Ten tournament and beyond. This is just about the most balanced team in the country offensively with Mackenzie Holmes and Grace Berger generating offense from the post and the perimeter, and oodles of shooters surrounding them in Sydney Parrish, Yarden Garzon and Sara Scalia. Plus, they actually defend well enough to throw other teams off balance, with Chloe Moore-McNeil as the head of the snake on that end of the floor. Her foul trouble against Iowa was a huge reason the Hoosiers had such difficulty reining in Clark. Loss on Sunday or not, Indiana basically has played consistently well since Berger came back in early January, and I would be praying to end up in a different region than this team on Selection Sunday.
go-deeper
GO DEEPER
A hyped crowd, a game-winning shot and Caitlin Clark heroics make for historic day at Iowa
Chantel: Ditto. It feels strange to say that the Hoosiers have great depth considering they only play six players, but after last season, six players feels like serious depth for this team. Moore-McNeil is the only IU player playing 33-plus minutes? Praise be.
Sabreena: What’s wild about the Big Ten is for as much as we’ve extolled Indiana and Iowa, Maryland might be the best team right now. What the Terrapins did to Iowa was as impressive a performance as I’ve seen all year, and the perfect example of a team peaking at the right time. Those confusing losses to DePaul and Nebraska are far in the rearview; the current iteration of Maryland is a defensive juggernaut that walls off the paint, gets out in transition and rolls off double-digit scoring runs in the blink of an eye. Diamond Miller is good enough to be the best player on a title-winning team, and the rest of the crew has come along with her. Abby Meyers and Brinae Alexander are shooting the lights out, and I don’t have words to explain how frustrating it must be to have Shyanne Sellers guarding you.
Chantel: Sellers’ growth from her freshman to sophomore seasons, especially in terms of her defensive play, has been one of the most fun things to watch this season. And offensively, she has become such a dynamic playmaker for Brenda Frese’s team. She is dangerous, and she makes this team way more dangerous.
There aren’t that many mid-majors making noise this season, but are there any teams outside of the Top 25 that you might tune in to watch during conference tournament season?
Sabreena: Florida Gulf Coast may not have Kierstan Bell or another WNBA first-round prospect this year, but the Eagles still have Karl Smesko, and that means they’ll play the most modern offense possible. Plus, the Atlantic Sun has two teams currently on double-digit winning streaks, which would make a Gulf Coast/Liberty final a real treat.
The Ivy League has also been interesting this season. Princeton appears to have settled in, playing like the preseason favorite over the last month, but Columbia, Harvard and Penn have all beaten up on each other this year, creating some drama around that automatic bid.
Any other potential Cinderellas we should have an eye on?
Chantel: Belmont. The Bruins return three starters off a team that got NCAA Tournament win experience last season by beating Oregon and nearly taking down Tennessee. They have two more games to play in the regular season, but they’re riding a 12-game winning streak. In my book, experience plus momentum is usually a pretty good equation for some March Magic when it comes to mid-majors.
But even though I like the Bruins, I’m not certain that there’s a mid-major team that can play ultimate spoiler or go on a huge run during the NCAA Tournament. I think the bulk of the madness this year will come from all the power conferences beating up on one another with the 6 or 7 seeds being more dangerous than they’ve been in awhile. And part of that comes from the fact that there just seemed to be so many more injuries this season, which impacted records, and if those teams can get healthy by the tournament, then their records/seedings might not reflect what’s actually in the cupboard.
I can’t believe we’ve gotten this far without talking about the chaos that could be the Big East. Is this the first time in a loooooong time that UConn is going to require an at-large bid to get into the big dance? Given the most recent injury news out of Storrs (Dorka Juhász missing Monday’s game with an ankle sprain) and that Azzi Fudd is still participating in only warm-ups, I’m just not certain this team will have the depth to get through the Big East tournament unscathed. Though, it feels as though we should note that the last time the Huskies didn’t receive an AQ (2013), they went on to win the national title with no opponent getting closer than 18 points in the tourney. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Sabreena: As much as I want to predict chaos, I can’t see the Big East tournament ending any way but with UConn cutting down nets. This is a much better conference than in recent years, with five teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament in ESPN’s latest bracketology. But Juhász specifically sat Monday to be ready for the tournament, and as long as the current starting five plus Caroline Ducharme are good to go, I think this group has enough to get the job done in what is basically their backyard at Mohegan Sun.
Chantel: The Maddy Siegrist Hive is going to be sending you angry emails, Sabreena.
Sabreena: The most difficulty Siegrist has had all season was against Aaliyah Edwards, and I expect Edwards to once again be up to the challenge. But even if UConn wins the Big East, I have a hard time seeing the Huskies ending up as a No. 1 seed when it’s all said and done, which brings me to my last question. Which team has the most to prove during the conference tournaments?
Chantel: Good question. I’m curious to see what Tennessee can do. The fact that the SEC has two teams ranked in the top four, and that’s it for SEC ranked teams … feels a bit off to me. The Lady Vols have had some quality losses this season, and they’ve been in basically every game they’ve played this year for 30-ish minutes. I want to see if they can push that to 40. Kellie Harper has two weeks to get her players better and find the right buttons to push, but I think if Jordan Horston can fill her stat line — and not just from a scoring perspective — this could be a team that shows the SEC should’ve gotten more respect during the regular season from voters.
What about you?
Sabreena: Hilariously, we find ourselves in the same conference.
Chantel: Ah, yes, the SEC, it just means more.
Sabreena: I think this is a big week for LSU. The Tigers fell flat on their faces the first time they faced off against South Carolina — no shame, considering that’s what happens to most teams — but getting another date with the Gamecocks, and at least playing it close, could go a long way in preparing LSU for what’s to come later in the NCAA Tournament. And if the Tigers fail to even get that far, it’ll be easier for us amateur bracketologists to predict an early exit for them in the Big Dance.
Chantel: I, for one, am excited to see how all our predictions come to pass.
Sabreena: Hopefully, these age better than our midseason roundtable. But hey, Notre Dame won the ACC, so kudos to us.
Chantel: And Iowa is definitely not a Final Fo … oh, wait, never mind (mea culpa, mea culpa). Regardless of how right (or wrong) we are or come to be, it’s March, and that’s reason enough to celebrate.