The existence of these meetings is being leaked on purpose, to be sure. Allegedly, it’s coming from the B1G’s side, fwiw.
If the CFP improbably gets voted to expand by Friday, we shall see how much it changes the realignment calculations. Could very well speed things up (even more).
Last Edit: Sept 1, 2022 11:56:59 GMT -5 by Deleted
The focus then becomes which conference between the Big 12 and Pac-12 get their next media deal finished & announced first...
...in which it sounds like it'll be the Big 12, supposedly sticking with both of their pre-existing partners, Fox & ESPN.
The Pac meanwhile is already talking to prospective new partners, such as Amazon & Apple, of which some think the Pac should consider signing away the entirety of their rights to one of those streaming services exclusively, assuming it procures the best sum of money. I agree that it's absolutely worth exploring. Anyone in the country would theoretically be able to have easy access to the games – unlike how the blasphemy of the Pac-12 Networks are set up now. Not entirely sure what would happen to the said Networks in that scenario.
Regardless, if the Big 12 indeed announces their new deal soon, the Pac will probably need to be ready to announce a counter deal in order to prevent its current members from going ahead & bolting. IMO, San Diego State ought to be ready to receive an invite – from whichever of the two conferences is first...
At this point – assuming the Pac's new deal is substantially less than the Big 12's like many think it'll be – I'd be in favor of Oregon & Washington going to the Big 12 only if they negotiated bringing along Washington State & Oregon State as well. Add in the Arizona schools + the Mountain schools and eventually you'd get a really fun 20-team conference with rivalries galore, even with Texas & Oklahoma gone and without any of the Power-5 California schools. And even if Oregon & Washington eventually finagle their way into the Big Ten, at least Oregon State & Washington State could potentially remain at the Power-5 level.
Depending on the situation of the whole realignment landscape, I can now see myself being fine with my Huskies ending up wherever. None of this realignment bullshit is in my or anyone's control anyway. If the Pac dissolves, it dissolves. History shmistory. In this day 'n' age: Money > Conferences, and Rivalries > Conferences. The only thing that would really concern me is if we moved to the Big 12 and it wouldn't be able to invite a California school. We need California for recruiting. An SDSU invite would somewhat solve that issue, though, assuming Stanford & Cal feel like the Big 12 is beneath them and beg the Big Ten to let 'em in.
Last Edit: Oct 19, 2022 23:25:32 GMT -5 by Deleted
I think Washington and Oregon will wind up in the B1G. Cal and Stanford could, but both would have to upgrade their investment in athletics to compete, and I'm not sure either administration really wants to spend the money -- and also adjust admission standards, among other things -- to do so.
Stanford & Cal would likely take a good-sized discount to get in. Though I suppose the same would be said for Oregon & Washington…
In due time, it would seem. It’s just sad how several years ago, the Pac almost tried getting Texas amongst others. That surely would’ve saved the conference had it been successful. But, here we are.
The UC Board of Regents is rumored to be meeting mid-month (Nov. 15-17 allegedly) to decide – once & for all – what to do about UCLA’s move to the Big Ten. The Board could
—choose to attempt blocking the move entirely, or —agree on imposing some sort of “toll tax” for Cal’s sake, or maybe even —simply do nothing (besides show emotion) and ultimately let it happen.
I think Option 2 is what’ll end up happening, but I as someone who tends to enjoy chaos from afar would be very interested to see what Option 1 looks like and how it’d play out. There is a chance though that the Board simply does nothing.
The Big Ten is probably lawyering up right about now if they aren’t ready to go already.
For the record: I don’t at all believe this is a done deal yet, but the likelihood of it eventually happening would certainly increase if the UC Board of Regents definitively permits UCLA (even if conditionally) to move to the Big Ten, on the 17th.
But if UCLA improbably ends up being forced the stay in the Pac, the Pac imo wouldn’t need SDSU quite yet, especially if the Big Ten takes another Pac school (my guess would be Stanford to make yet another play at Notre Dame, whom everyone wants) and SDSU would still only be the Pac’s 11th school. Should be noted that the Mountain West’s Grant of Rights ends in July of 2026, in which a buyout would very likely have to take place if SDSU were to join another conference earlier than that.
As part of the board's decision, UCLA will have to increase its expected investment in student-athlete resources and might have to provide a subsidy to the University of California, Berkeley in the range of $2 million to $10 million once a Pac-12 media deal is secured, depending on the amount of the deal. A UCOP spokesperson said the frequency of the subsidy to UC Berkeley is yet to be determined.
The board included other conditions for UCLA to address the impact of the move on athletes, including funds for academic support, nutritional support and mental health services.
According to the letter to the regents, the subsidy to UC Berkeley would be to "enhance student-athlete support on that campus."
San Diego State and ideally SMU to (finally) put some roots in Texas.
But above all, it needs to be a deal that Washington & Oregon are willing (incentivized?) to sign. There are rumors Washington might threaten to go independent until that Big Ten invite comes, which would be incredibly dumb & short-sighted – now that's a worst-case scenario if I’ve ever heard one.
And hopefully no one jumps ship to the Big 12 either. Unless the Big Ten takes who they want from the Pac and the Big 12 cleanly takes literally everyone left, more realignment would further make things extremely messy.
Last Edit: Dec 15, 2022 17:55:58 GMT -5 by Deleted
If Kevin Warren leaves the Big Ten to return to the NFL and become the President/CEO of the Chicago Bears – he is reportedly the leading candidate for the job – then we can pretty much forget about any further westward expansion for the Big Ten.
It's officially time for Oregon & Washington to be willing to sign a new Pac media deal. Some leverage appears to have been lost. Those Big Ten invites ain't coming anytime soon – maybe down the road, but not in the next couple years. Move forward.
If Kevin Warren leaves the Big Ten to return to the NFL and become the President/CEO of the Chicago Bears – he is reportedly the leading candidate for the job – then we can pretty much forget about any further westward expansion for the Big Ten.
It's officially time for Oregon & Washington to be willing to sign a new Pac media deal. Some leverage appears to have been lost. Those Big Ten invites ain't coming anytime soon – maybe down the road, but not in the next couple years. Move forward.
Cathy to the Big Ten so she can consider expansion there? 😜
formerly pickdiamondmillerchallenge lol formerly dmillerturnprochallenge ha formerly bostonturnprochallenge lol
Jon Wilner, a well-respected Pac-12 reporter who was the one credited with breaking the news that USC & UCLA were joining the B1G news put out there a few days ago that he thinks there's essentially a 1 in 3 chance that the Pac ends up folding.
He had previously thought the conference would have a media rights deal arranged by the end of January, but of course January has come & gone. He now thinks a deal – should it happen – will happen by mid-March. If it doesn't, that's when he thinks the odds of extinction go way up.
As it is, a 33% chance of an entire collegiate athletic conference in general is terribly high, let alone one for a Power-5 conference. Everyday there's no deal announced, the Pac inches closer to extinction... No clue what happens if that happens.
What's interesting is the sound of nothing happening. There was a lot of talk about a Pac media deal being signed by now, but crickets. And with no B1G commissioner, adding Oregon and Washington seems off the table.
Adding to the confusion is the NIL uncertainty. Will there be regulation? If so, how will it be enforced and who will enforce it?
I still think the eventual shakeout will result in one or more Ivy League-type conferences and two (maybe three) super conferences where everybody spends and makes tens of millions of dollars.
But given the absolute lack of movement, the only thing certain is uncertainty until some big contracts get signed.
There's been some chatter on a Cal board about how USC donors view the move to the B1G, and the message was that USC does not want Oregon or Washington in the B1G. They especially hate Oregon, and there were hints part of the USC deal was that Oregon and Washington wouldn't join.
Now this is just talk, but it was an interesting angle. What kind of clout does USC have inside the B1G? Apparently, if they have any, Oregon and Washington are not coming in.
It's hard to believe that the Pac hasn't signed something by now. The Big 12 may just snap up Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State, leaving a Pac-6.
USC may have some power in the Big Ten, but they’re still newbies. Ohio State, Michigan, and probably Penn State are still in front of them in the pecking order. People have said they ultimately wouldn’t want USC & UCLA out on an island where the two would dominate the west-coast recruiting scene. They’d want to dilute it just enough to where USC doesn’t start to continually leapfrog them in the standings. Plus, they can then pretend to outwardly care about travel concerns for those LA student-athletes. So by that logic, then of course USC as an institution would oppose any further west-coast Big Ten expansion. It just might not entirely be up to them.
Oregon & Washington will end up somewhere not named the Pac, if not soon then at some point in the next media deal cycle. They care too much about their athletics to simply be content to let themselves make not even 50% of what the Big Ten & SEC schools make. I think going to the Big 12 is the last resort – above staying in the Pac.
I'd be absolutely shocked – and pretty upset at this point – if we saw either school remain in the Pac following the 2023-24 school year.
Stanford and even Cal might not be long for the Pac either. The more academically-inclined conferences in the country would feel lucky to have them be part of it – with academics playing an underrated part in all of this imo.
Big Ten finishing what it started. a sad day for many, certainly mixed feelings for me, but at the same time i'm thrilled to become a conference mate of schools we root for 'round here like Minnesota & Rutgers!
lynxmania and WHEN is the B1G (aka specifically your Gophers) gonna be polite and invite my Huskies into the mix, hmm?
Stanford and Oregon first and then I’ll get back to you lol
took u long enough to get back to me but thank u for swapping Stanford out for UW here, obviously 😌 on a serious note, i still hope Stanford & Cal can one day make it in as well.