The talent pool in men's basketball is much, much deeper than for women. Elite male athletes cluster in football and basketball, and to a lesser extent, in baseball. Elite female athletes are much more spread out. Volleyball is especially an issue because the skill sets are roughly the same -- but volleyball players don't have to run and don't have to deal with contact. Soccer is also a huge sport for girls, and sports like lacrosse and water polo are growing at the youth level.
And athletics in general is much more important, for whatever reason, for boys than girls. Very few elite male athletes don't participate in sports, but there are elite female athletes who could be good but just aren't that interested.
Then the limits of such a "shallower" talent pool ought to be tested. You expand until it's clear that such a talent dilution begins to negatively affect ratings & attendance, the former of which has been hitting highs lately. But of course, that concept assumes that one has the capacity to even entertain the notion that the present-day talent pool is wider & more vast than it was the last time the League had 16 teams. (Sadly, that appears to maybe be its own sticking point.)
And while we're just playing the greatest hits of arguments here for the umpteenth time: Do we even know for sure that a significant amount of people would stop watching if there was an obvious talent dilution due to expansion? How do we know they aren't watching primarily just to support "their girls," however one would personally define that? Can we agree that that substantially ties in with how the League markets itself?
A 12-team League just doesn't make up a full size for a League. Not even close. Not that 30/32 should or should be the long-term goal, but c'mon. 12 is borderline-minor league-sized. And if you're the League, more teams ➡️ more revenue, which I think is an underrated aspect to all of this that we haven't fully contemplated.
So if the League doesn't expand, it better only be because it can't attract any legitimate prospective ownership groups, and not for any other reason.
Last Edit: Sept 12, 2022 15:16:51 GMT -5 by Deleted
Actually, I'm not making the case that the quality of product is more important than the number of teams. I think it's something to be considered, but likely, if there are available owners, expansion would occur and would be a good thing.
I am making the case that the quality of the product would suffer with expansion, though even that is hard to gauge. (I think coaching might be as critical a talent dilution as playing.)
At some point, however, the quality of the product will impact the league. Whether that's at 14 teams or 20 or 24, no one can really say.
I haven't heard any fans or media pundits seriously advocating for an eventual number of teams beyond 20, especially since we're only still at 12. And assuming the League doesn't expand by 4-8 teams all at once, the teams will be added in diligently – realistically no more than 2 at a time – in a way that doesn't completely overwhelm the whole system so that the League can make its observations based off that to know when/where it should stop.
Expansion in this League was always going to be a numbingly slow process once Engelbert made it clear that she wanted to cross all her t's and dot all her i's when planning for it.
Last Edit: Sept 13, 2022 11:36:29 GMT -5 by Deleted
(I think coaching might be as critical a talent dilution as playing.)
OTOH we currently have a first year head coach, who's never been a coach in the league in any capacity nor ever been a head coach at any level, up 2-0 in the finals. Perhaps there's more coaching talent out there than you believe.
(I think coaching might be as critical a talent dilution as playing.)
OTOH we currently have a first year head coach, who's never been a coach in the league in any capacity nor ever been a head coach at any level, up 2-0 in the finals. Perhaps there's more coaching talent out there than you believe.
As I've said before - the real problem may be a shortage of qualified front office staff mainly GMs. Look at how badly the Shock did under Richardson (and most would say the same for Bibb), the Mystics under Trudi Lacy, the Fever under Catchings or even the Dream under the somewhat experienced Angela Taylor. A bad GM can do a lot more damage than a bad coach or some bad players.
Come to think of it, it's not clear that more than half of the WNBA teams now have a proven and capable GM. LA doesn't even have a GM, while the Fever have only an Interim GM. There is certainly room to question other team's GMs (the Lynx, the Aces, the Liberty) and at maybe a few others.
(I think coaching might be as critical a talent dilution as playing.)
OTOH we currently have a first year head coach, who's never been a coach in the league in any capacity nor ever been a head coach at any level, up 2-0 in the finals. Perhaps there's more coaching talent out there than you believe.
I think the issue isn't the number of quality coaches but the lure of the college game -- which offers more money, more prestige and more stability.
And yes, Quinn has done a very good job at Seattle, but I think you might find some Indiana fans (if there are any) who'd like to see a wider pool of talent to choose from.
Becky Hammon is making a million per year. I don't know of any WCBB jobs paying like that for someone with no prior head coaching experience.
For all the "lure", WNBA coaches aren't going to the college ranks in any serious numbers. There are what, two assistants leaving this season for college jobs? Plenette Pierson and Fred Williams? There were at least five who went from college jobs to W jobs: Nikki Blue, Roneeka Hodges, Carlos Knox, Cinnamon Lister, Christie Sides.
The Next is reporting Linn Dunn says she will be giving Sue Bird a call. I'm not optimistic that will lead anywhere. If Bird did want to start coaching, I'd think LA would be a more attractive destination.
Noelle Quinn can get hired by LA, and Birdy can then get hired here.
Imo there’s a nonzero but still pretty small chance that Bird is willing to start her post-playing career coaching in Indiana. Maybe if Indiana moved somewhere sexier, but even then. I’m skeptical she’ll be so quick to leave the Seattle area with Megan Rapinoe still playing for the Reign – although Rapinoe is getting up there in age herself, and is only signed through 2022, so maybe.
Noelle Quinn can get hired by LA, and Birdy can then get hired here.
Imo there’s a nonzero but still pretty small chance that Bird is willing to start her post-playing career coaching in Indiana. Maybe if Indiana moved somewhere sexier, but even then. I’m skeptical she’ll be so quick to leave the Seattle area with Megan Rapinoe still playing for the Reign – although Rapinoe is getting up there in age herself, and is only signed through 2022, so maybe.
I've not followed Sue Bird all that much, but is there any evidence she even wants to coach? I recall her saying she was more interested in a front office job after playing and even did an internship (for Denver in the NBA?) in the past.
I doubt it would be a problem, but there is always a danger in hiring a former superstar player who is well loved by the fan base for an important job. If they are just not able to make the transition effectively, then it's a bad look for the franchise to fire the legend but they can do a lot of damage before they get fired. Not that ever happened to a WNBA team......
There's also the issue that if the FA season turns out badly for Seattle would Bird want to be in charge of a complete rebuild with all the risk that entails. Storm might prefer to stick with Quinn and then fire her after they tank enough to secure the star players they need in the lottery and are ready to take off again. (Sorry if my crystal ball is in heavy cynicism mode.)
Noelle Quinn can get hired by LA, and Birdy can then get hired here.
Imo there’s a nonzero but still pretty small chance that Bird is willing to start her post-playing career coaching in Indiana. Maybe if Indiana moved somewhere sexier, but even then. I’m skeptical she’ll be so quick to leave the Seattle area with Megan Rapinoe still playing for the Reign – although Rapinoe is getting up there in age herself, and is only signed through 2022, so maybe.
I've not followed Sue Bird all that much, but is there any evidence she even wants to coach? I recall her saying she was more interested in a front office job after playing and even did an internship (for Denver in the NBA?) in the past.
Nah, there’s zero evidence that she’s for sure going to go into coaching. Considering her lack of actual coaching experience, it’d be very surprising to see her start out as a WNBA HC anywhere – Seattle maybe if the spot opens up, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Does that mean she wouldn’t stand a chance at getting immediate success? Not necessarily, no. As those point out when they’re trying to discredit Noelle Quinn, (also, is that maybe lowkey racism? I get those kind of vibes from… certain people, who peddle that) Bird already has drawn up plays in the huddle here & there. No doubt she knows how to organize her (fellow) players. To me, it’s more of a matter of what she’d want her own coaching style & philosophy to be, which probably takes time – and experience – to really craft & curate.
Beyond coaching or color-commentating or doing novice front office work, I could see her just taking it easy for the next 12 months and enjoying “retirement” before getting back out there in some way/shape/form.
Last Edit: Sept 15, 2022 12:16:57 GMT -5 by Deleted
I think the comment about Hammon is a little disingenuous. She was supposedly a finalist for NBA head coaching jobs, which pay a lot more than a million, and I believe she made more than that as an NBA assistant (or at least comparable).
And the others were all assistants, who are notably nomadic, and often underpaid. A college assistant's job is recruiting, which means sitting in the stands at some facility texting while "babysitting" a prospect. In the WNBA, an assistant has a much different role, and is much more involved in the games and coaching than just making sure some 16-year-old knows you're there.
Head coaches certainly aren't voluntarily leaving the W for college jobs. There's currently one college coach who did that, mostly because she got a better job than she would have if she waited a season until she got fired. She'll be back looking for a job in the W soon enough if last year was any indication.
It's not like the WNBA now has an excess of good coaches for teams to pick from. LA and Indiana have no coach. Nygard and Brondello seem underwhelming this season at least. T. Wright has gotten off to a good start but it's by no means assured she will continue to do so. After all, Collen was COY as a rookie head coach and skipped town before getting run out of town according to pilight. VJ gets a lot of criticism as well. There are a long list of former HC's out there: Amber Stocks anyone? How about Walt Hopkins? Brian Agler? Pokey Chapman? Marianne Stanely? Carlos Knox? Derek Fisher? Or whatever unproven assistant coach is behind door number 3......